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  • Writer's pictureChuck Lanza

Tropical Storm Elsa Briefing #5 July 4, 2021

Updated: Jul 9, 2021

Observations and Forecast Information from the NHC:

In their 11:00 am Public Advisory, the NHC lists the following Watches and Warnings for Florida: Warnings Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere with the warning area. Watches: Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, Including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watch for the southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Island A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. The Public Advisory shows Elsa is moving west-northwest. The forward speed has decreased to 13 mph and is in stark contrast to the previous 29 mph which was causing disruption of Elsa's circulation and resulted in a downgrade yesterday from Hurricane to Tropical Storm. Maximum Sustained winds are 50 mph. The NHC is forecasting some strengthening and a turn to the northwest today and tonight. Elsa is expected to head towards the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is forecast to move near of over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. For critical information about the threats to areas throughout Florida see the Map of Coastal Threats and Possible Impacts or click the last graphic below. Graphics and links used in this briefing: 5-Day Cone: Intensity: From the Website by Levi Cowan - Tracks: From the Website by Levi Cowan - Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities Earliest Reasonable of Tropical Storm-force Winds: Map of Coastal Threats and Possible Impacts

I added a link to the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale in the Hurricane Related Definitions. It is a short and succinct review of the scale on which storm categories are based.

As a reminder, a complete update to the NHC advisories is released daily at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm. These are usually the most important and anticipated. Between these times at 2am, 8am, 2pm and 8pm there are advisories with less information usually just an update to the storm's current location. I will provide at least one briefing daily until the threat has passed. I read all the advisories but my preference is to brief on either the 5am, 11am, or 5pm. If there are any major changes to the forecast I may add another briefing.

Protective Action Recommendations (PARs):

Close monitoring is in order. The time for us to prepare is much less. Actions that can be taken today: Listen and act on information provided by the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and local public officials. Remove loose items (e.g., statutes, nomes, etc.) from the yard that could become projectiles and make sure they are safely stored away. Make sure you have adequate gas in my vehicle and grill. Do not undertake any tree trimming or any activity that will increase loose items or vegetation near the house. If you live on the west Coast of Florida monitor local Emergency Management Offices for instructions if you live in a low-lying area that tends to flood during rain storms or if you live in an area subject to storm surge. Check batteries for items that maybe used during a loss of power (i.e., radios, flashlights and portable televisions).

Actions I have taken to this point:

Verified my generator is working,

I have potable water and food for at least three days for my wife and I.

If the municipality or county, in which you reside, offers inclusion on an emergency notification systems, be sure to join.

Use the links below to find important preparedness information.

Be safe and keep up to date on the tropics.

Graphics from the National Hurricane Center Center and other helpful related sites:

(Click the graphic to go to the site)Helpful links: Hurricane Related Definitions

Cone of Probability

Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale

Important Government Weather Related Sites

National Hurricane Center website.

NWS Weather.Gov

National Weather Service-Miami

National Weather Service-Melbourne

FEMA Hurricane page

Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM)

Ready South Florida

Important Non-Government Weather Related SitesFlorida Power and Light Storm Center

More to Follow

Disclaimer: I take every precaution to provide timely and accurate information from the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and support organizations. Please use the information provided here as a supplement to the forecasts and recommendations presented by hurricane and weather professionals as well as government officials. Please share these briefings with friends, colleagues and relatives. I will strive to keep the briefings succinct, robust and timely. Thank you. Chuck

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