Tropical Storm Elsa Briefing #2 July 1, 2021

Observations:The 11:00 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows South Florida and Central Florida in the Cone of Probability for Tropical Storm Elsa. As demonstrated in the graphics, Elsa is forecast to be near the coast of Southwest Florida early next week. Yesterday,bullet 4 of the Messages for Tropical Storm Elsa stated, "Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast." Although not fully restated in the 11:00 am advisory, these recommendations remain in affect and are augmented with, "There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula early next week." The final sentence of bullet 4 states, "However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles, this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast."

Some of the track models are show below. The current NHC forecast track reflects the bias to the left of the multiple tracks but the models may change and should be more reliable after Elsa passes the Greater Antilles.

Most of the intensity models rest between Elsa remaining a Tropical Storm or a Category 1 Hurricane while only a few outliers are showing Elsa as Tropical Depression or Category 2.

A complete update to the NHC advisories is released daily at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm. These are usually the most important and anticipated. Between these times at 2am, 8am, 2pm and 8pm are advisories with less information usually just an update to the storm's current location. I will provide at least one briefing daily until the threat has passed. I read all the advisories but will usually only brief on the 5am, 11am, or 5pm. If there are any major changes to the forecast I may add another briefing. My preference is to brief after the 5am or the 5pm. Information from the National Hurricane Center Center:

Protective Action Recommendations (PARs):

As was stated in the Observations and the Key Messages sections above, close monitoring is in order. For those of you who are new to the area or to these briefings, I will include some important sites and contacts I use. If the municipality or county, in which you reside, offers inclusion on an emergency notification systems, be sure to join. Be safe and keep up to date on the tropics. Helpful links: Ready South Florida

http://readysouthflorida.org

Florida Division of Emergency Mangement

https://www.floridadisaster.org

Florida Power and Light

https://www.fpl.com/support/helpful-links.html

More to follow.

Disclaimer: I take every precaution to provide timely and accurate information from the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and support organizations. Please use the information provided here as a supplement to the forecasts and recommendations presented by hurricane and weather professionals as well as government officials. Please share these briefings with friends, colleagues and relatives. I will strive to keep the briefings succinct, robust and timely. Thank you. Chuck