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  • Writer's pictureChuck Lanza

Tropical Storm Elsa Briefing #7 July 6, 2921

NHC Advisory#: 24A Time and Date of NHC Advisory: 0800 July 6, 2021 Storm Name: Elsa Category: Tropical Storm Maximum sustained wind speed: 60 mph Direction of movement: NNW Forward Movement: 12 mph Location: 55 miles West of Key West Florida

Observations and Forecast Information from the NHC:

In their 8:00 am Public Advisory, the NHC lists the following Watches and Warnings for Florida: Warnings Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River See the full definition of each of these Watches and Warnings at the Glossary of NHC Terms page Watches: Hurricane Watch for Egmont Key to Steinhatchee River, Florida Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida northward from Englewood to the Aucilla River Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, Including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Florida northward from Flamingo northward to Bonita Island Tropical Storm Watch from the Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River, South Carolina Tropical Storm Watch for west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida Storm Surge Watches and Warnings: Storm Surge Warning for West Coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay Storm Surge Watch from west of the Aucilla to the Ochlockones River, Florida Taken directly from the Public Advisory which shows Elsa is moving north-northwest at 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On this track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday, Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph with higher gusts, Some strengthening is forecast through tonight, Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it make landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland. For critical information about the threats to areas throughout Florida see the Map of Coastal Threats and Possible Impacts or click the last graphic below. Graphics and links used in this briefing: Key Messages 5-Day Cone: Intensity: From the Website by Levi Cowan - Tracks: From the Website by Levi Cowan - Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities Earliest Reasonable Arrival of Tropical Storm-force Winds: Map of Coastal Threats and Possible Impacts U.S. Rainfall Potential

I added a link to the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale in the Hurricane Related Definitions. It is a short and succinct review of the scale on which storm categories are based.

As a reminder, a complete update to the NHC advisories is released daily at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm. These are usually the most important and anticipated. Between these times at 2am, 8am, 2pm and 8pm there are advisories with less information usually just an update to the storm's current location. I will provide at least one briefing daily until the threat has passed. I read all the advisories but my preference is to brief on either the 5am, 11am, or 5pm. If there are any major changes to the forecast I may add another briefing.

Protective Action Recommendations (PARs):

For he Florida Keys and Southwest Florida, preparedness activities should have been completed. For the Florida Keys, and the western coastal counties in Florida, watch with attention to the directions provided by local emergency management and other governmental officials as they are in contact with the NHC and NWS to develop a response plan for your community. Evacuations could be ordered for low-lying and flood prone areas. If the order is made for your area, following it closely and quickly. Storm Surge is much more dangerous than many people understand. Please listen to your local officials and weather expertise as there actions are to protect lives and property. Other areas in the Cone of Probability, Preparedness activities should be moving quickly and close monitoring is in order. For residents in counties on the coast and currently north of Elsa must monitor ;local officials closely and take actions as requested. of the us to prepare is much less. Actions that can be taken today: Listen and act on information provided by the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and local public officials.

Use the links below to find important preparedness information.

Be safe and keep up to date on the tropics.

Graphics from the National Hurricane Center Center and other helpful related sites:

(Click the graphic to go to the site)Helpful links: Hurricane Related Definitions

Cone of Probability

Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale

Important Government Weather Related Sites

National Hurricane Center website.

NWS Weather.Gov

National Weather Service-Miami

National Weather Service-Melbourne

FEMA Hurricane page

Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM)

Ready South Florida

Important Non-Government Weather Related SitesFlorida Power and Light Storm Center

More to Follow

Disclaimer: I take every precaution to provide timely and accurate information from the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and support organizations. Please use the information provided here as a supplement to the forecasts and recommendations presented by hurricane and weather professionals as well as government officials. Please share these briefings with friends, colleagues and relatives. I will strive to keep the briefings succinct, robust and timely. Thank you. Chuck

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