Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
08:00 AM EDT, Saturday August 29, 2015
Observations and Comments:
In the 0800 AM Advisory (Figure 1), the center of Erika is now near the northern coast of Cuba whereas it was southeast of this point in the 0500 AM forecast. Obviously the storm is disorganized and identifying the center of circulation has been difficult. The current forecast is for Erika to track slightly southwest then turn to the northwest, exit Cuba, move over the Keys, and be in the Florida Panhandle at 0200 AM on Thursday.
The forecast and the models (Figure 2) are for the storm to become a Tropical Depression for approximately two days then to strengthen once again to a Tropical Storm. Other than the Keys, Southeast Florida is not in the cone of probability. Southwest Florida is on the edge of the current cone of probability. On the forecasted track, the center of the storm will not be close to Southeast Florida.
The following is taken directly from the National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlook for Southeast Florida.
Today and Tonight: Thunderstorms are likely, with lightning and persistent heavy rain.
Sunday through Friday: There is a potential for heavy rainfall, gusty wind, and a slight chance of tornados. The risk of rip currents is high.
I will continue to monitor and plan to send briefings out in the morning for awhile longer. I have colleagues in the five-day cone of probability who have asked for updates.
Please consider forwarding this briefing to your colleagues, friends and relatives.
This update was prepared based on information extracted directly from the National Hurricane Center advisories or from information retrieved from the National Weather Service website. The comments in the My Thoughts and the Protective Action Recommendations For South Florida sections are based on my interpretation of available information.